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© Copyright 2002
Rogers Media. The following article first appeared in the March 2002 edition of
BENEFITS CANADA magazine.
Volatility-what volatility?
Most plan members are not prepared to deal with
market ups and downs. A lack of diversification threatens their retirement
savings.
BY ADAM NEAL
Over the past 10 years, DC plans
have introduced many Canadians to the world of investments. Inexperienced
investors enjoyed a bull market in the late 1990s. Many flocked to equity
markets and pushed price-to-earnings ratios to unprecedented highs. The
technology bubble was fuelled, in part, by the herd-like mentality of investors
looking to get rich quick. The media also had a profound impact on investors'
behaviour, with market commentaries, analyst picks and economist's
prognostications available daily, even hourly.
In the late 1990s providers embraced technology as a
vehicle for empowering customers. Sponsors and members now have access to plan
information around the clock. Plan rules permitting, employees can make trades
whenever they choose.
When the technology bubble exploded in 2000, many
inexperienced investors were confronted with volatile markets and negative
returns for the first time. As a result, market timing became a hot topic in DC
circles.
While market timing is a potentially risky strategy,
research reveals it is not a concern for DC plans. Fidelity Retirement Services
Co. studied participant trading activity on the days of greatest market
volatility in 1999 and 2000. The majority (78%) of all participants did not make
any trades during 1999, while 15% made only one trade. In 2000, 74% of
participants did not make a trade that year. When the number of trades carried
out by an employer or fund manager are taken into acount, the percentage of
participants that did not make any trades increases from 74% to 82%.
The research also identifies the 20 most volatile days on
the major North American exchanges in 1999 and 2000, and tracks trade activity
on those days. Interestingly, on eight days, trading among DC plan members was
actually lower than average.
In the U.S., Fidelity tracked the number of members
contacting provider services such as call centres on the most volatile days.
Even then, the volume of contacts did not rise overall. On 10 days, contacts
were indeed higher than average, but on the other 10, the volume was actually
lower.
This begs the question: are participants truly unmoved by
market volatility? Most plan sponsors and providers would probably conclude that
employees either understand the concept of investing for the long term and are
staying the course or that they are apathetic or, worse, lack the proper
knowledge needed to make changes to their portfolio.
Employers and providers may like to think participants
have grasped the concept of staying the course. But many members are simply
ill-informed. Fidelity's U.S. data shows that regardless of the number of
options offered in a plan, an astonishing number of participants only invest in
one to two options. For example, in plans with 31 options, 42% of members invest
in only one to two options.
A lack of diversification, not abandoning a long-term
plan, may be the biggest risk employees face in volatile markets. In fact, many
participants are investing in just one option--the plan's default fund. One or
two options may be an acceptable level of diversification if they consist of a
fund of funds or a lifecycle fund. But these options are still not available in
the majority of DC plans.
What are the lessons for sponsors here? First, market
timing isn't a great concern. However, employers should investigate their
default funds and work with their provider to communicate with plan participants
who are in that fund simply because they have not made a decision about what to
do with their retirement savings.
Sponsors would also benefit from examining plan
diversification on a quarterly basis and setting annual goals for improving
diversification. They can also consider offering more education seminars and
working with an independent provider that offers counselling and advice to
employees. BC
Adam Neal is the
national sales director with Fidelity Retirement Services Co. in Toronto. adam.neal@fidelity.com.
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