Projected cost increases for all types of medical plans in the United States are anticipated to be down by between 0.1 and 0.5 percentage points in 2014, according to a survey by Buck Consultants.
This continues the favourable trend of slow, steady declines generally experienced since 2010.
In its 28th National Health Care Trend Survey, Buck found costs are projected to increase at rates that are lower than its recent prior surveys, as shown in the following chart.
Type of plan | 28th survey | 27th survey | 26th survey |
| Preferred provider organization (PPO) | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% |
| Point-of-service | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% |
| Health maintenance organization | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% |
| High deductible health plan | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
Some survey respondents cited reduced utilization as the primary reason for the decrease.
“This may be a result of the economic slowdown and its impact on consumers’ willingness to seek medical treatment,” says Harvey Sobel, a Buck principal and consulting actuary who co-authored the survey. “Even though the decline is good news, most plan sponsors still find 8% to 9% cost increases unsustainable.”
The survey also reported trend factors for dental and vision plans.
“It’s too soon to tell the impact of public and private health exchanges on trend,” says Daniel Levin, a Buck principal and consulting actuary, who co-authored the survey. “It may take another few years before we really know if, and by how much, the exchanges will ‘bend’ the cost curve.”
The 126 insurers and administrators providing medical trends for the survey cover a total of approximately 119 million people.
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