About eight in 10 (79 per cent) U.S.-based institutional investors expect to see a market correction in 2026, according to a new survey by Natixis Investment Managers.
These investors gave a 49 per cent probability of taking in a market correction valued between 10 per cent and 20 per cent, with a 20 per cent probability of it being more than 20 per cent.
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The survey, which took responses from 515 global investors managing $29.9 trillion in assets, found that four in ten (40 per cent) respondents are concerned about inflation and are currently split evenly on whether the ongoing trade conflict stemming from the U.S. will ease or continue. A majority of investors (59 per cent) believe tariffs are driving renewed inflation concerns.
Despite 63 per cent of investors remaining bullish on technology, with 71 per cent expecting artificial intelligence to drive further growth, the survey found concerns around an AI-driven tech bubble are increasing with 41 per cent of investors citing it as a key concern, compared to 28 per cent last year.
Almost half of U.S. investors, represented through 80 different responses, cited geopolitical disruption, particularly conflict with China, as their top fear for the coming year.
“The outlook for 2026 is clouded for institutional investors,” said Dave Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight, in a press release. “After years of strong returns, risks that once felt distant are more tangible. With uncertainty surrounding geopolitics, growth and inflation, investors are positioning portfolios to weather whatever conditions 2026 may bring.”
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