Putting U.S.–China relations back on a constructive path will be one of the top foreign policy challenges facing the Biden administration in 2021. I expect an almost immediate, modest improvement in the relationship, because I expect Biden to abandon the current administration’s approach of treating the Chinese government as an enemy. Converting that into a […]
In China, keeping the novel coronavirus under control is key to maintaining the economic recovery, and there are reasons to be optimistic, despite a breakdown in U.S.-China relations. In the last two weeks of August, there were a total of only 187 new coronavirus cases in China, and none of those were the result of […]
China’s V-shaped economic recovery continued for a fourth consecutive month in June, led by strong domestic demand. And if the novel coronavirus remains under control, China can remain the world’s best consumer story. In China, consumer spending came back with force. Inflation-adjusted retail sales plummeted to a 23.7 per cent year-over-year decline in January and […]
China’s economy was the first to suffer the consequences of fighting the novel coronavirus and is the first on the road to recovery. If it can prevent a second wave of coronavirus cases and continue to support the small, privately owned firms that drive job creation, China’s economy could put a floor under global growth […]
The recent publication of the U.S.-China trade deal and the final macroeconomic numbers for 2019 should set the stage for healthy economic performance and stronger market sentiment in China in 2020. But the risk of a return to tense relations between Washington and Beijing looms over 2021 and beyond. President Donald Trump appears to believe […]
China’s debt problem is serious, but the risk of a hard landing or banking crisis is, in my view, low. The reason is that the potential bad debts are corporate, not household, debts and were made at the direction of the state—by state-controlled banks to state-owned enterprises, as part of a stimulus in response to […]
I am optimistic about China’s medium-term economic prospects, within the context of gradually slower year-over-year growth rates. This optimism is based largely on the continuing evolution of government policy designed to embrace private enterprise and markets. My biggest concern is that there has been little parallel evolution in China’s governance and institutions. China’s economy and […]