Canadians can expect an average salary raise of 2.6% in 2014, with the biggest increases in the oil and gas sector and the lowest ones in hospitality and retail.
This is according to a national survey of public and private sector employers conducted by Hay Group, a management consulting firm. The projected increase is lower than the projection for 2013 (at 2.9%). The 2014 raises in Canada projected this summer continue to be much lower than projected increases of 3.7% before the economic crisis of 2008.
Next year, the highest incomes are expected in the oil and gas sector (4%) despite the strategic issues in the industry that have caused some moderation in long-term investment. Services (3.3%), credit unions (3.2%), chemicals (3.1%) and utilities (3.0%) are also forecasting increases that are higher than the national average. These high expectations continue to reflect the demand for key skills and experience.
The sectors with the lowest projections for 2014 are leisure/hospitality (2.0%) and retail, consumer durables and forestry and paper (all 2.1%). Overall, the public sector is forecasting lower salary increases (2.3%) than is the private sector (industrial and financial at 2.7%).
In terms of geography, Newfoundland and Labrador (4.0%), Saskatchewan (3.4%) and Alberta (3.2%) lead the country when it comes to expected income increases. The bottom of the ranking is dominated by the Maritime provinces (2.1%), British Columbia (2.3%) and Ontario (2.6%).
Canadian average projections for 2014 rank above those for France (2.5%), Italy (2.2%) and Japan (2.0%) but below forecasts for countries such as the U.S. (2.8%) and the U.K. (2.9% %). Canada still lags far behind the predictions for emerging economies such as India (10.8%), China (9.0%) and Russia (at 8.0%).
The actual base salary changes realized in 2013 were exactly as forecasted for the industrial (2.9%) and public (2.5%) sectors but lower in the financial sector (2.6% realized against 2.9% forecasted).
More than 500 Canadian organizations provided details of their planned salary adjustments for 2014 for the survey, which was conducted this summer with many of Canada’s leading employers.