Canadian employees can expect an average total salary increase of 3% in 2016, an Aon survey finds.
That is up from this year’s estimated average salary increase of 2.8%, and suggests that employers are expecting an improvement in business conditions in 2016.
However, there’s wide variation in remuneration among industry and employee groups.
Read: Companies cautious with salary increases
For instance, resource-based industries are lagging other sectors this year and anticipate lower increases in 2016. As well, within their organizations, employers are increasingly emphasizing the importance of variable pay versus general increases, with sharp divisions arising between performance levels.
In the services industry, the sector with the highest expected salary increase next year is professional services, which includes advertising/public relations, accounting, consulting and legal firms. Next year’s increases are anticipated to average 3.5% in the sector, following a strong 2015 in which increases are averaging 3.7%. Also in services, increases projected for employees in application services/consulting (3.2%), IT enabled services (3.4%) and retail (3.3%) are above the national average.
Read: Salaries projected to rise 2.4% in 2016
In manufacturing, meanwhile, aerospace leads the way, with anticipated increases of 3.4% next year, followed closely by the consumer products (3.3%) and pharmaceutical (3.1%) sectors.
It’s a far different story for resource-related sectors.
After being at the top of all industries for the last few years, oil and gas reported a 2.5% actual total salary increase in 2015 and is projecting 3% in 2016. Other sectors with the lowest projected increases are mining (2.7%), forest and paper products (2.6%) and metals (2.1%).
Read: Employers expect lower salary increases in 2016
The challenges in resources are reflected by geographical disparities.
For example, Alberta in 2014 led the country in average salary increase, at 3.6%. In 2015, however, increases averaged only 2.6%, according to the survey. In resource-rich Saskatchewan, meanwhile, salary increases will average just 2.2%—the lowest among all provinces. By contrast, Ontario (3% for 2015 and 2016, up from 2.8% in 2014) has seen consistent increases year over year.
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