Without changes in New Brunswick’s healthcare system, costs are expected to jump to $4.6 billion by 2020 from $2.8 billion in 2009.
On a per capita basis, this represents an increase to $5,976 per person from $3,711, or 4.4% per annum.
An actuarial study on future healthcare expenses and resource needs, conducted by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) in conjunction with the New Brunswick Health Council (NBHC), provided the information to the Department of Health and other health authorities last week.
Using data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information and from the NBHC, researchers developed a model to project healthcare expenses for the province.
The model took into account demographic projections of the province’s population and developed trend factors to reflect the various healthcare component costs. The impact of lifestyle factors on these costs was also correlated.
“Three main factors drive this increase: a projected 2% annual price inflation in medical costs, higher costs brought on by the aging of the population, and increasing utilization of the system brought on by lifestyles and other factors,” says CIA president Jacques Lafrance.
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